Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid: The Gunners Favorites to Reach Champions League Final

Two teams that have never lifted the Champions League trophy will face each other for a spot in this season's final. Atletico Madrid hosts Arsenal in the first leg of the Champions League semifinal on Thursday early morning WIB, in a match predicted to be extremely tight.

According to Opta's supercomputer, both teams' chances of winning are almost balanced. Atletico Madrid has a 35.1% win probability, while Arsenal holds a slight advantage with 37%. The remaining 27.9% of simulations ended in a draw.

This clash features two clubs with hundreds of matches in Europe's top-tier competition without ever becoming champions. Arsenal has played 223 matches, while Atletico Madrid has recorded 190 games.

Arsenal arrives with great ambition to achieve a double title - the Premier League and Champions League. Despite showing signs of fatigue during their 1-0 win over Newcastle United last weekend, Mikel Arteta's squad maintains momentum ahead of their crucial visit to Madrid.

Last season, Arsenal's journey was halted by Paris Saint-Germain in the semifinals, who later became champions. Now, The Gunners have an opportunity to reach the final.

On the other hand, Atletico Madrid is also familiar with bitter European drama during Diego Simeone's era. The Spanish capital club lost twice in finals (both to city rivals Real Madrid) and suffered one semifinal elimination.

Arsenal is in solid European form, remaining unbeaten in their last 12 Champions League matches with 10 wins and two draws. One more match would equal their longest unbeaten streak in the competition.

However, Atletico possesses a dangerous weapon in Julian Alvarez. The Argentine striker has scored nine goals this season, the most by any Atletico player in a single Champions League campaign. 

Alvarez will likely partner with Antoine Griezmann up front. The French forward wants to deliver a trophy before departing to Orlando City at season's end.

Nevertheless, Atletico will face Arsenal's formidable defense. The Gunners have conceded only 11 goals (0.5 per match on average) and kept clean sheets in 59% of matches when David Raya, William Saliba, and Gabriel Magalhaes play together.

Good news for Arsenal comes with Bukayo Saka's recovery. The English winger's presence is crucial as Arsenal averages 2.6 goals per Champions League game with Saka, compared to just 1.5 goals without him.

These teams actually met earlier this season. During October's group stage, Arsenal thrashed Atletico Madrid 4-0 in London, one of Atletico's worst defeats in the competition.

However, Atletico's home record against English teams in knockout stages is impressive. They remain unbeaten in six home games against English clubs in the Champions League, with three wins and three draws.

For final qualification predictions, Opta's supercomputer favors Arsenal with a 72% chance, while Atletico stands at 28%.

Predicted Lineups

Atletico Madrid: Jan Oblak; Marcos Llorente, Marc Pubill, Robin Le Normand, Matteo Ruggeri; Giuliano Simeone, Koke, Johnny Cardoso, Nico Gonzalez; Julian Alvarez, Antoine Griezmann.

Manager: Diego Simeone.

Arsenal: David Raya; Ben White, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhaes, Piero Hincapie; Declan Rice, Martin Odegaard, Martin Zubimendi; Bukayo Saka, Viktor Gyokeres, Gabriel Martinelli.

Manager: Mikel Arteta.