Indonesia's Opportunity for the 2026 World Cup: Reality vs Hope
Source: Between
The journey of the Indonesian National Team towards the 2026 World Cup has now entered the fourth round. The Garuda Squad will compete for one direct ticket to the final round against Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
What are the Garuda Squad's chances of qualifying directly for the 2026 World Cup? Football Meet Data predicts the team's chances of reaching the final round are no more than 10 percent.
Tough Challenge in Group B
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In this fourth round, Indonesia is grouped in Group B with two West Asian powerhouses: Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Both teams are formidable opponents, both in terms of FIFA ranking and experience on the world stage.
Saudi Arabia, ranked 59th in FIFA, and Iraq at 58th, are far above Indonesia, currently sitting in 119th place globally.
All Group B matches will be held at the King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Jeddah, from October 8-14, 2025.
Patrick Kluivert's squad will begin their campaign against Saudi Arabia on Thursday, October 9, 2025, followed by a match against Iraq three days later.
Chances for the Three Group B Teams
Again, according to Football Meet Data, Indonesia's chance of finishing top of Group B is only 7 percent.
The chance of finishing second is 23 percent, while the probability of finishing third is 69 percent.
Conversely, Saudi Arabia is favored with a 62 percent chance of finishing first, followed by Iraq with 37 percent.
Those numbers might feel cold, but beyond the statistics, the Garuda spirit remains unbroken.
Assets and Obstacles
Bad news comes from the defense. Goalkeeper Emil Audero has been confirmed absent due to injury. This will leave Indonesia's backline without one of its experienced last bastions.
However, amidst this situation, there is a small reason for optimism. Indonesia has not lost in its last two encounters with Saudi Arabia, recording one draw and one win.
Although the record against Iraq is less encouraging, with eight losses and one draw, history always holds room for surprises.
A 7 percent chance to qualify directly for the 2026 World Cup might sound small, but for Indonesian football, this is more than just a number.
It's about belief, struggle, and the enduring dream cherished by the players, coach, and millions of supporters back home.
Because in the world of football, nothing is truly impossible as long as the Garuda is willing to fly.
