Belgium On The Rise, Spain Remains The Favorite To Qualify For The 2026 World Cup Semi-Finals

Belgium head into the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-final fixture with high confidence, having delivered clear performance improvements across their last two matches. A major test however awaits, as they are set to face Spain at the Los Angeles Stadium this Saturday WIB.

This meeting between the two nations is projected to be one of the standout fixtures of the entire quarter-final round.

Rudi Garcia's squad never looked fully convincing during their run to top Group G. Even so, Belgium have built steady momentum after coming from behind to defeat Senegal 3-2 after extra time in the Round of 32.

This positive form continued in the Round of 16, where Belgium delivered a dominant 4-1 victory over tournament hosts the United States.

Charles De Ketelaere scored a brace, while Hans Vanaken and substitute Romelu Lukaku each added one goal to secure the Red Devils' comprehensive win.

Despite having returned to goalscoring form, Romelu Lukaku is still not expected to be named in the starting line-up for this fixture.

Lukaku becomes only the second Belgian player to score in three consecutive World Cup matches, matching the record set by Marc Wilmots back in 2002.

Lukaku's finishing form reflects the overall effectiveness of Belgium's attacking unit. Across the tournament so far, the side has registered a 12.1% shot conversion rate. This is Belgium's second best World Cup conversion rate since 1966, only trailing the 15.2% rate they posted at the 2018 Russia World Cup.

Alongside improved finishing, Belgium have also become far more aggressive in building attacking moves. Over five matches played at the 2026 World Cup, Kevin De Bruyne and his teammates have averaged 21.4 shots per game, totalling 107 attempts so far.

This is the second highest average shots per match in Belgium's World Cup history, bettered only by the 24 shots per game average they recorded at the 1970 tournament.

Even so, breaching Spain's defence will be an enormous challenge. Luis de la Fuente's side just recorded their sixth consecutive clean sheet following their 1-0 Round of 16 win over Portugal, marking the longest such run in Spain's World Cup history.

La Roja have now gone 10 hours and 9 minutes without conceding a single goal at the World Cup. Statistically, Spain have posted an expected goals against (xGA) figure of just 0.30 per match - the lowest rate ever recorded by any national team in a single World Cup finals tournament.

Mikel Merino's dramatic 91st minute winning goal against Spain sent Spain through to their sixth World Cup quarter-final appearance.

After failing to progress past this stage on four separate occasions between 1934 and 2002, La Roja finally broke through to the semi-finals in 2010 before going on to be crowned world champions that year.

Now all tournament attention is once again focused on Lamine Yamal. The Barcelona winger was only three years old when Spain lifted the 2010 World Cup trophy.

At this 2026 tournament, Yamal has already completed 17 successful dribbles. Only Jamal Musiala (19 dribbles in 2022) and Kylian Mbappé (22 dribbles in 2018) have recorded better numbers for a teenage player at the World Cup, since this data was first officially tracked in 1966.

In midfield, Rodri operates as the engine of Spain's system. He has completed 80 progressive passes through opposition defensive lines across the tournament, the highest total for any Spanish player at the World Cup since 2010. Only Gerard Piqué (86), Xavi Hernández (89) and Xabi Alonso (126) posted higher numbers during Spain's victorious 2010 campaign.

Spain's consistent tournament run is closely linked to the steady leadership of Luis de la Fuente. Since taking charge of La Roja, he has guided his side to victory in all six prior knockout matches at major international tournaments. Should he secure a win against Belgium, de la Fuente will equal the rare elite record previously set by Italy's Vittorio Pozzo and Spain's own Vicente del Bosque.

That said, Belgium hold positive historical memories of facing Spain at the World Cup. In the quarter-finals of the 1986 edition, Belgium eliminated La Roja on penalties after the match finished 1-1 after extra time.

Overall however Spain hold a dominant head-to-head record, remaining unbeaten in their last 11 meetings against Belgium across all competitions with nine wins and two draws. Most notably Spain have won each of their last five encounters by a combined aggregate score of 13-1.

According to the latest 25,000 iteration simulation run by Opta supercomputers, Spain remain the clear favourites to progress to the semi-finals.

La Roja hold a 59.3% chance of winning the match inside 90 minutes, compared to just an 18.3% chance for Belgium.

The probability of the fixture finishing level after normal regulation time is calculated at 22.4%.

When including outcomes for extra time and penalty shootouts, Spain's overall probability of advancing to the semi-finals rises to 69.5%.