Portugal are More Favoured, Ronaldo Chases His First Knockout Stage Goal at the 2026 World Cup

Portugal go into the tie as favourites when they face Croatia in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 at Toronto Stadium, early Friday WIB. Alongside chasing a spot in the Round of 16, this match also presents Cristiano Ronaldo with a chance to break his World Cup curse: he has never scored a goal in the knockout stages of the tournament.

Based on 25,000 simulation runs conducted by Opta supercomputers, Portugal holds a 54.5 percent chance of winning inside regular time. Croatia meanwhile have a 20.4 percent win probability, while there is a 25.1 percent chance the match will proceed to extra time.

All main focus will fall on Ronaldo. The 41-year-old striker scored twice during the group stage when Portugal defeated Uzbekistan 5-0. However, he failed to find the net during Portugal's 1-1 draw against the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and also went goalless in the stalemate against Colombia.

If selected against Croatia, this will be Ronaldo's ninth World Cup knockout stage appearance. Despite this, the five-time Ballon d'Or winner has not registered a single goal across his previous eight knockout matches.

This statistic is one of the most notable anomalies in Ronaldo's career. Since official records began in 1966, he has taken 29 shots in World Cup knockout football without scoring once, matching Roberto Carlos' record for the most shots taken without a goal at this tournament stage.

In terms of general play, Portugal were dominant throughout the group phase. Roberto Martinez's squad completed 1,690 passes - the highest total ever recorded by Portugal in a World Cup group stage - with an average ball possession of 62.5 percent.

Portugal's key outstanding issue is improving the effectiveness of their forward line. The side only registered 37 total shots with just 12 on target.

This is one of the lowest figures recorded in Portugal's World Cup group stage history, only performing better than their 2018 tournament campaign.

Vitinha has emerged as Portugal's standout player. The Paris Saint-Germain midfielder has operated as the team's playmaking engine, completing 270 passes during the group stage - the highest tally ever recorded by a Portugal player in a World Cup group phase.

Against Colombia, Vitinha successfully completed every single one of his 54 attempted passes, recording a perfect 100% pass accuracy rate for the match.

For the opposition, Croatia have recovered strongly after opening the tournament with a 4-2 defeat to England. Zlatko Dalic's side followed this up with consecutive victories over Panama and Ghana to secure qualification as Group L runners-up.

Croatia are on course to record three straight wins at a major tournament for the first time since the 2018 World Cup, when they progressed all the way to the final.

This fixture also carries historic potential for Luka Modric. If he features, the veteran midfielder will make his 23rd World Cup appearance, drawing level with Paolo Maldini and Manuel Neuer as the joint fifth-most capped player in tournament history.

Looking at head-to-head records, Portugal hold a clear advantage. The Selecao have only lost once in 10 meetings against Croatia across all competitions, with seven wins and two draws from those fixtures.

For official competitive matches specifically, Portugal have never been defeated by Croatia, holding a record of five wins and one draw.

According to Opta simulations, Portugal have a 67.4 percent chance of advancing to the Round of 16, and a 4.1 percent chance of winning the World Cup title.

By contrast, Croatia hold a 32.6 percent chance of progressing to the next round, while their odds of lifting the World Cup trophy sit at just 0.6 percent.