Do-or-Die vs Iraq: Indonesia's World Cup 2026 Fate Scenario

The Indonesian national team will play their final match in the fourth round of Group B of the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers. The Garuda squad will face Iraq in Jeddah on Sunday, October 12, 2025, early morning Western Indonesia Time. 

The question is, does Indonesia still have a chance to reach the World Cup? The answer is yes, but with conditions. 

The 2-3 loss to Saudi Arabia on Thursday, October 9, 2025, early morning WIB has placed Indonesia in a difficult position. The chance of direct qualification is slim but not extinguished. The final match against Iraq will be decisive.

Here are Indonesia's chances if they win, draw, or lose against Iraq: 

Win 

A win is the best scenario for Indonesia. If they can defeat Iraq, Indonesia's chance of direct World Cup qualification remains possible.

The condition is that Iraq must defeat Saudi Arabia in their final match. If this happens, all three teams will have 3 points. The group winner would be determined by goal difference or goals scored in the three-way head-to-head.

Additionally, a win over Iraq automatically secures a ticket to the fifth round if Iraq fails to win against Saudi Arabia.

Draw

If the match against Iraq ends in a draw, Indonesia's chance of advancing to the fifth round remains open but slim.

Indonesia will advance to the fifth round only if Saudi Arabia defeats Iraq by a two-goal margin in the final match.

Lose

A loss is the worst scenario for Patrick Kluivert's squad.
Defeat to Iraq would end Indonesia's campaign in the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers. 

If this scenario occurs, the Saudi Arabia vs Iraq match on October 14 will only determine the group winner and runner-up of Group B.

The winning team will get a direct ticket to the 2026 World Cup. The losing team will compete in the fifth round.